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What Happens at the Next Vote to Certify an Election?

Mike Johnson and the Republican incentive structure.

Jonathan V. Last

Nov 1

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Senate pages carry the Electoral College ballot boxes, at the Capitol, on January 7, 2021 in Washington, DC. - Congress was on track on January 7, 2021 to certify Joe Biden as the next US president and deal a hammer blow to Donald Trump whose supporters stormed the Capitol hours earlier, triggering unprecedented chaos and violence in the seat of American democracy. (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images)

1. Votes to Certify

Let’s pretend we live in a happy world.

In this world it is November of 2024 and Joe Biden has just won another comfortable victory. He has gone over 50 percent in the popular vote and gotten 306 electoral votes, again. While some of the state contests were quite close, we are not in Florida/Bush v. Gore territory and there is no evidence of significant fraud.

Let’s further pretend that although there are legal challenges, the states basically do their jobs by counting and certifying votes and sending electors to Washington for Congress to count and certify.

Even in this rosy scenario Donald Trump will claim victory, obviously. He will say that he won hugely—by millions of votes—and was cheated by mumble-mumble Deep State Sleepy Joe Antifa.

What happens then? ...

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