Welcome to this week’s edition of Receipts. I swear when I started working on this newsletter I thought I was going to write something more chipper, about how the global oil shock would at least mean good news for the climate fight. But facts got in the way. Turns out that a global oil shock is not likely to be the boon for renewables one might expect, because it is destabilizing Europe’s politically tenuous climate policies. And to the extent there’s any global momentum on climate change, it’s Europe that’s holding it all together. If you have different (maybe cheerier?) predictions for how this will all pan out, I’d love to hear them. Please drop me a note in the comments. And if you don’t already subscribe to Bulwark+, I hope you’ll consider becoming a member. The support of our members gives us the resources to report out stories like this one, where the simple hot take/intuition sometimes gets overtaken by a more complicated reality. You can subscribe right here, with a 20 percent discount off our regular annual price: –Catherine Rampell How Trump’s Iran War Could Actually Worsen Climate ChangeOh, you thought high oil prices would help the climate fight? Think again.
TRUMP’S WAR OF CHOICE with Iran has many costs—in dollars, munitions, lives. But you could imagine at least one possible upside: climate. This global oil crisis has again highlighted the riskiness of dependence on fossil fuels and the relative resilience of renewable energy. After all, naval blockades can stop oil tankers from traversing a narrow strait but they can’t keep the sun from shining or the wind from blowing. We’d be more economically insulated if our country had built out more utility-scale solar projects, wind farms, batteries, and all the other clean-energy infrastructure that then-President Joe Biden subsidized and that Trump subsequently killed. Maybe this war will finally build more political will for green investment—not for bleeding-heart, tree-huggy reasons, but for our national and economic security. You might assume all this. I initially did. But, at least in the short term, it’s likely wrong. Instead, a sustained oil disruption could end up shattering the world’s attempts to curb climate change. That’s because it’s screwing up Europe’s ambitious climate plans, which are A) much more important than anything the United States is doing, and B) basically holding the global climate effort together. Europe is the keyWhen I started reporting out this newsletter, I thought it would be a good news/silver lining–type story. The headline I had in mind: “Trump’s Accidental Plan to Fight Climate Change.” After all, the war has already led to a shutdown of a fifth of the world’s oil supply, which is a keep-it-in-the-ground climate hawk’s dream. The subsequent runup in energy costs has likely boosted some climate-friendly incentives elsewhere in the economy: The prospect of $4-a-gallon gasoline may get more Americans out buying EVs. Higher electricity prices might lead more people to persuade their HOAs to allow rooftop solar. And so on. But those kinds of changes are small bore compared to what really matters—and what really matters right now is ... Join The Bulwark to unlock the rest.Become a paying member of The Bulwark to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. A subscription gets you:
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How Trump’s Iran War Could Actually Worsen Climate Change
March 12, 2026
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