The Democrats are historically unpopular, receiving exceptionally low marks from both the general public and their own voters. Yet the party is on track to retake the House come 2026.
In Gallup's most recent poll, only 38 percent of Americans voiced a favorable view of the Democrats, the party's worst showing in at least three decades. Quinnipiac University, meanwhile, pegs approval of congressional Democrats at just 21 percent, an all-time low. And some of this disdain is coming from inside blue America: Only 40 percent of Democraticvoters are "satisfied" with their party's approach to fighting Donald Trump, according to Quinnipiac; in CNN's polling, that figure is 22 percent.
Nevertheless, by some metrics, the Democrats' approach to combating Trump (bringing lawsuits and holding an occasional, little-watched news conference) appears to be working. When Trump took office, Americans approved of him by an 8.2-point margin, according to 538's polling average. As of this writing, that figure is down to a mere 0.8 points. For context, at this point in Joe Biden's presidency, Americans still approved of his job performance by more than 15 points. It is unusual for a president to see their approval fall this low this quickly.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk — the face of the GOP's push to cull the federal bureaucracy — is even more disliked than Trump.
At least in some surveys, the public's anxieties about Trump and Musk overwhelm their antipathy for the Democrats: In a Washington Post/Ipsos poll, voters said they preferred Democrats to control the next Congress by a 54 to 41 percent margin. And the betting market Kalshi currently gives the party a roughly 75 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in 2026.
The dissonance between the Democrats' exceptionally bad approval ratings — and the party's seemingly rosy (albeit, very early) outlook in the upcoming midterms — is not hard to explain. Through Trump's crusade to increase Americans' cost-of-living through tariffs, Musk's haphazard vandalism of the federal government, and congressional Republicans' pursuit of unpopular Medicaid cuts, the GOP is doing the opposition's work for it.
If the Republican leadership continues heedlessly stoking a political backlash, then Democrats could mount an electoral comeback next year even if they change virtually nothing about their party's messaging or substantive agenda (assuming, of course, that free and fair elections remain a part of America's political system). In our political system, being the slightly less despised party is sometimes good enough. But if Democrats wish to build a large and durable majority — one capable of fully controlling the federal government and returning right-wing extremism to the political fringe — they will need to do more than serve as a widely disliked vessel for registering displeasure with Republican misrule.
Trump won on a promise to lower prices — and is now deliberately raising them
The primary basis for optimism about the Democrats' midterm prospects isn't poll numbers. Some surveys show the 2026 race for congressional control as a dead heat. And in any case, it's too early to put a ton of stock into such data.
The true fount of hope for a "blue wave" midterm is the Republican leadership's political recklessness: Trump, Musk, and the congressional GOP are all pursuing their idiosyncratic ideological projects with gross disregard for public opinion.
Americans' top concern in last year's election was their nation's high and rising cost of living. Trump won the White House on the strength of his promises to curb inflation. Yet since taking office, he has shown virtually no interest in lowering consumer prices. To the contrary, Trump has ordered an array of tariffs that will directly increase the cost of imported goods for America's households, and foreign-made parts for its manufacturers (which will in turn raise the prices of American-made goods).
This has not been lost on the electorate. In February, consumer confidence fell at its fastest rate in three and a half years. This drop was driven by respondents' anxieties over the administration's policies on tariffs and trade, which have led consumers to expect higher inflation.
Meanwhile, in recent polls, a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump's economic management. Throughout Trump's first term, voters consistently gave his handling of the economy higher marks than his overall job performance. Now, the opposite is true.
Trump has plenty of time to persuade the public that he takes its concerns about inflation seriously. But he evinces no desire to do so. Despite a faltering stock market and resiliently elevated prices, Trump said this week that he intended to move forward with 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican goods.
Trump's indifference to voters' concerns could prove resilient. After all, he cannot run for another term, and has never demonstrated much concern for the Republican Party as an institution. Imposing steep tariffs — and then handing out exemptions to whichever business interests or nations genuflect before you — is not a great way to win the American people's esteem. But it's a fine way to make yourself feel powerful (if not, to induce purchases of your memecoin).
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