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Polling for Hollers

Two new surveys light our shared Sunday on fire….

Mark Halperin

Sep 24

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Everybody is checking out the new presidential polling data, with emotional reactions:

Whether you want to believe the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Trump up double digits over Biden) or the NBC News poll (with the race tied), Democrats are today bedwetting, quaking, arguing, or reassuring, depending on which ones you listen to.

Which is a good time to let those of you who are not currently members of the Mario or Luigi tiers of Wide World of News Concierge Coverage know that there is still time to join to be part of a Zoom this Tuesday at 6pm ET with some of the most esteemed pollsters in the U.S. of A.

Joining us Tuesday night for the best-timed Zoom EVER will be pollsters Nicole McCleskey, Bill McInturff, Celinda Lake, Ann Selzer, Jim McLaughlin, Stan Greenberg, and David Binder.

Bill will be presenting on that NBC News poll out today that he helped conduct, while the others have done polling for too many clients to mention, but including Kim Reynolds, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and the Des Moines Register.

To become a member of Concierge Coverage (if you aren’t already) and to join this extraordinary conversation about these latest polls, the 2024 landscape, and polling methodology in general, please click here.

And to read more about the full benefits of Concierge Coverage, click here.

Like most of you, I have spent some of my Sunday on X, looking at posts-formerly-known-as-Tweets, explaining whether Democrats should be freaked out about these polls – or simply reminded that (a) some polls are outliers; (b) the presidential election will be close regardless of who the major party nominees are; and, (c) Joe Biden is the only Democrat on planet Earth who has even beaten Donald Trump.

Here is a sample of some of the Xs from (mostly) very smart people which caught my eye:

Two things that are important to note:

1. Cornel West is largely absent from the conversation about this data.

2. While the ABC/WP poll suggests a possible wipeout for the Ds, the NBC poll is also filled with red flashing lights, as you can see below:

I will have more to say about both polls in Monday’s edition of Wide World of News, but for now, let us finish this section with messages I got this morning from two of the smartest people I know.

Both are members of Concierge Coverage and both have experience at the very highest levels of presidential politics. My respect for both individuals could not be higher.

Their takes on these polls, however, could not be more different.

Member #1:

Many of the Biden campaign team, but not all, are experienced smart political operatives. Yet, they have confounded me with this absurd strategy of believing that it is a winning message to keep telling the American people that Bidenomics is working and the border is safe. Furthermore, their safety net of blaming Trump for inflation and immigration are worn out excuses that no longer have any credibility.
This WP poll, even if on the outlier side of surveys (and it is not that far out there), should be “the wake up call” they cannot ignore. Their strategic imperatives are wrong and, if they continue to be the foundation of their re-election plan, they will do what I have consistently thought was never going to happen - convince Biden to retire.
To stay with their strategy is what the swamp has done wrong for the last 8 years - ignore what the American people are screaming!
Arrogance. Hubris. Stupidity. Take your pick!!!
The only thing going for them right now is that it is September 2023, not September 2024.

Member #2:

I can show you one expert after another mocking and ridiculing Joe Biden and Democrats for their strategy leading up to the 2022 midterm. The mockery for him talking about democracy and abortion was over the top. You should have heard Bari Weiss and people who are the so-called truth tellers. They made fools of themselves mocking Democrats and Joe Biden. And as always, there was no blowback for underestimating Biden, and being proven wrong. If there were, nobody would be working in media today.
The irony of people attacking the press for not telling the truth, and then being willfully blind to all of their terrible predictions in 2020 and 2022 is pretty thick.
I am with Ron Klain here. I don’t say it often but I will say it here.
People said Biden was dead in the water after Iowa, after New Hampshire. Even after Nevada. The open mockery was over the top. The open mockery throughout the 2020 campaign was over the top.
The tales of doom told on election night were over the top.
The tales of doom over the next two years were over the top. But no one is ever held accountable for underestimating Joe Biden these past few years. Nobody.
And I must say the people that you look to as truth tellers are at the top of that list. They are wrong about Biden far more than they are right.
From Trumpers to progressives to people who have made a lot of money in podcasts and newsletters being “truth tellers.” They have been DEAD wrong about Biden at the polls and DEAD WRONG about Biden hammering out bipartisan legislation for three years straight.
No accountability—because they are the “truth tellers.”

The David Ignatius column put blood in the water, but the elite Democratic sharks all swam on by, eyes closed, breath held, convinced that Joe Biden remains their best bet to achieve their one and only goal in life (stop Trump), Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom withstanding.

Will these two new polls cause a second-thinking, second-guessing feeding frenzy among donors, elected officials, pundits, and party poohbahs, demanding Biden stand down or someone serious challenge him for the nomination?

If you are going to Ladbrokes, bet “no.”

****

SPECIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL WIDE WORLD OF NEWS READERS

To preview and review this week’s Republican presidential candidate debate, please join me, Sean Spicer, Scott Walker, and other guests for a pair of live virtual discussions.

We will convene by Zoom on both the day of the debate (Wednesday) and the day after (Thursday) at 9am ET to have lively, sophisticated, and fun conversations about this high profile confab.

We will also be taking your questions.

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****

OTHER SUNDAY ESSENTIAL READING

* John Ellis writes brilliantly on what Rupert’s “retirement” means:

If Trump wins the GOP nomination, the most powerful name in news will once again find itself dependent, if not subservient, to a man its top people regard as singularly unfit for the presidency. Say it one more time for good measure: The audience will program the most powerful name in news, not the other way around.

NOTE: For a limited time, all Wide World of News readers can enjoy John Ellis’ remarkable newsletter for 30 days for FREE by clicking here.

* Savant Bruce Mehlman is out with his latest cross-discipline deck, including these gems:

The full deck explores the “dozen key questions for the next 13 months, spanning elections, AI regulation, US-China relations, culture wars & ESG, and the economy.”

NOTE: All Wide World of News readers can receive Bruce’s deck for FREE every quarter by emailing bruce@mc-dc.com and asking to be added to the list.

* New Jersey Globe:

U.S. Senator Bob Menendez will hold a press conference on Monday morning in Hudson County, where he grew up and where he launched his political career as a 20-year-old school board member, making his first public comments since his indictment on federal corruption charges on Friday.
Menendez is not expected to resign, but rather take a defiant stand against the allegations against him, the New Jersey Globe has learned. Indeed, he is expected to double-down and say he plans to seek re-election in 2024, even if he needs to run off the organization line.

* Shake it off?

NO!!!

Shake it up, per Page Six: