Why the U.S. military thinks Pelosi's Taiwan trip is a bad idea

The risk of a U.S.-China clash in the Taiwan Strait was supposed to manifest around 2027. That was the timeline suggested by former U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson during a congressional hearing in March 2021.

Instead, the U.S. and China suddenly find themselves in a dangerous faceoff over Taiwan in the summer of 2022. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's planned trip to Taiwan, first reported by the Financial Times, has sparked an exchange of heated words from hawks on both sides.

Hu Xijin, the former firebrand editor of China's Global Times tweeted that: "It is certain that the mainland's response to Pelosi's visit will be unprecedented and will involve shocking military response."

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has supported the visit, tweeting: "Nancy, I'll go with you. I'm banned in China, but not freedom-loving Taiwan. See you there!"

But the most interesting revelation may be that the U.S. military is opposed to the visit. Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden was asked by reporters about the Pelosi visit.

"The military thinks it's not a good idea right now," he said, offering a rare glimpse into how the professional military analyzes its options versus China.

Since that revelation, Pelosi has not said publicly if she would go ahead with the trip. But with Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping set to speak by phone on Thursday, both leaders will find it difficult to back down and risk looking weak. This may be precisely the reason why the military thought it would be a bad idea. Read more.